# Philip Krause I Beginner's Track, Prediction Markets I ETHGlobal Prague 2025

- Channel: [ETHGlobal](https://streameth.org/ethglobal)
- Date: 2025-10-09
- Duration: 29:09
- Topics: Ethereum, prediction markets, decentralized forecasting, binary markets, yes/no shares, liquidity pools, oracles, Scaffold-ETH, ERC20, ERC1155, AMM, order books, poly market, decentralized governance, AI agents, incentive design, probability calculation, conditional tokens, DeFi, smart contracts, blockchain technology, trading mechanisms, market resolution, real-world data, niche markets, futuristic applications
- Watch: https://streameth.org/watch/yt-be7ivnTz05c
- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=be7ivnTz05c

## Description

Philip Krause explores prediction markets in this ETHGlobal Prague 2025 workshop, covering their role as decentralized forecasting tools for elections, sports, and more. Learn how binary markets (yes/no shares) work, the importance of liquidity pools and oracles, and see a live demo of an on-chain prediction market built with Scaffold-ETH.

Discover how AI agents could revolutionize forecasting and tackle challenges like incentive alignment for niche markets. Perfect for developers interested in DeFi, decentralized governance, and futuristic applications of blockchain technology.

00:00 - Introduction to Prediction Markets & Real-World Use Cases
00:43 - How Binary Markets Work: Yes/No Shares & $1 Rule
02:22 - Key Components: Tokens (ERC20/1155) & Trading Mechanisms
04:20 - Order Books vs. AMMs for Prediction Market Liquidity
05:41 - Oracle Challenges: Bringing Real-World Data On-Chain
07:37 - Scaffold-ETH Demo: Setting Up a Prediction Market
09:44 - Roles: Users, Liquidity Providers & Oracles
10:53 - Liquidity Pools: Minting Tokens & Starting Probabilities
13:16 - Dynamic Probability Adjustments & Locked Tokens
15:28 - Monetization Models: Fees, Incentives & Revenue Pools
17:23 - Live Trading Demo: Buying/Selling Shares
19:18 - Reporting Outcomes & Resolving Markets
21:22 - Advanced Concepts: Conditional Tokens & Multi-Outcome Markets
22:29 - AI Agents & the Future of Decentralized Forecasting
25:11 - Q&A: Legal Considerations & Stock Market Integration

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🇨🇿 *ETHGlobal Prague*
This workshop is specifically for ETHGlobal Prague, a 3-day hackathon held May 30 - June 1 2025, bringing together the most skilled web3 developers, designers and product builders from all around the globe for a weekend-long adventure to advance the Ethereum ecosystem! Watch the full ETHGlobal Prague 2025 playlist here: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLXzKMXK2aHh5Vv-ZobDU2YMWekDFYvOqd&si=SoQ5O2TOAK8RkYf-

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