# The Four Horsemen of Poor Decision-Making - Wojciech Tymicki - Channel: [ETH Warsaw](https://streameth.org/eth-warsaw) - Date: 2025-10-07 - Duration: 26:49 - Watch: https://streameth.org/watch/yt-pTuovVTcfVM - YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTuovVTcfVM ## Description When faced with a challenge—whether it’s founding a startup, pivoting a product, or making crucial strategic decisions—founders encounter a fundamental dilemma: which direction to take and how to minimize the risk of poor outcomes. Decisions based on fragmented data or gut instincts can lead to undesirable consequences. How can cognitive biases be avoided? How do you resist the trap of making choices based on hunches or emotions? This presentation will explore how UX Research can save you from falling into one of the many cognitive biases that can lead you down the wrong path. By implementing rigorous research methodologies, you can avoid these common pitfalls and make well-informed decisions that support the growth of scalable, user-centered products. 🧜🏻‍♀️ ETHWarsaw is a series of educational and entertaining events for an active community of blockchain builders, developers and enthusiasts with focus on Ethereum-related tech. Once a year, we organize a large conference and hackathon for the community in the center of the Polish capital with speakers from the best web3 projects and participants from all over the world. Follow ETHWarsaw on social media for the latest updates! X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/ETHWarsaw LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ethwarsaw Telegram chat: https://t.me/joinethwarsaw See you all at our events in Warsaw 🙌🏻 ## Transcript hello there um so I'm not going to be talking about uh pretty images uh as uh as the my predecessor I'll be talking about something more well on the other side of the design about more about strategy and and ux and how you um how you make good decisions or at least how you try to make good decisions um and you fail um because our work boils down to making decisions our life boils down to making decisions so um I'm going to talk about some things that I think are um really important when you make decisions and they're hardwired um into your brain um to make you fail uh my name is vek timit I'm a head of design at 10clouds 10clouds is a software company um software house based in wara we specialize in blockchain AI uh um design branding strategy um so um majorly our clients are end to endend where we create products uh we advice in strategy execution delivery and um and the full product cycle um so um many of us are familiar with this famous illusion uh right we all know that those two lines are exactly the same length everyone pretty much saw this one Although our brain tells us that those lines are uh different the upper one is uh longer and the lower one is shorter this is uh our brain being lazy we just cannot stop and help to perceive them as an even our brain tells us tells our slow brain that what we see is uh uh correct but the reality is that uh often times what we see is uh completely Incorrect and we can Shake of that feeling this is this is hard wired into our brain to perceive those lines as uh as uneven well life is not made of Lines line life is made of interactions with other people dealing with really complex projects and as you can expect the same principle um applies to complex decisions we may perceive them in one way but the reality is completely different so um we need to um um our fast brain because I'm going to be talking about the different parts of our brain tell is intuitive and it operates automatically so by default automatically we assume that there those lines are um uneven um our brain makes a snap judgment um uh and we can't can't help it so um this uh this theory of of of brain um was kind in the in the the 60s but but by David canaman um and uh it told tells the story of fast brain and a slow brain the fast brain is uh is efficient but it's not accurate especially in complex situations it's made to make quick judgments and snap decisions um the fast brain tells you about the distance um between objects about the source of sound etc etc and um the slope brain is more analytical it's deliberate logical and requires more energy slow brain consumes more energy that's why we don't use it as much as we should our brain is by default set on The Fast setting to make decisions really fast to analyze environment very fast because you know back in the day we had to run away from lions and avoid death traps and and stuff like that um so this an evolutionary TR that we gained uh as a species and this is how we are wired there's nothing we can do about that only one thing we can do about it is to be aware that this is that's how our brain um is um is made interestingly uh which might explain some things that um our fast brain becomes more active as we get older meaning uh when we get older our cognitive abilities drop and we uh we use those uh channels of thought fast fast thought fast associations um and usually as you age you get more conservative you tend to um accept fast Solutions uh you turn T tend to turn more into um populist um political opinions as if you were a younger person um decision making is all about looking at different options and picking the best one so every every decision comes with its own set of worries I mean this all this all of this might be really basic or but um uh there is some um some deeper level to to that we don't spend much time about thinking about the process of decision making uh we would go crazy we cannot like think about every single thing and way pros and cons we need to make fast decisions so with when the decision becomes more complex we need to spend more time thinking about um weighing different options making the right decision starts with having a clear idea of the problem and if you don't have the good understanding of the issue you're missing important info um so um so it is very interesting how um when we are presented with a problem we already have uh a an answer to it it's automatic you ask me a question and I have an answer to it whatever that answer is Chad GPD also has an answer but as we know it hallucinates a lot we also hallucinate I mean CH GPT is a simulation of a human being and we also hallucinate when you ask me a question I will give you that answer but is that is that answer going to be correct maybe if I have enough of experience but most likely it's going to be some kind of fast judgment some uh general statement without um uh depth to it without considering all the options and available information so um sometimes when you're making a an important decision you have to talk about it that seems pretty obvious you talk with your partner about a big decision because once we are talking we're actually formulating our logical Trin of thought on how we arrive to this specific decision and while we're saying our reason behind the decision we actually um uh weigh all the pros and cons of that decision all the um consequences that that this decision comes with so mainly what I'm going to be talking uh during this uh this this talk are biases um and cognitive biases are um are mental shortcuts our brain uses um we're relying on rule of Thum to decide what's important and we ignore the rest we jump to conclusion and make SM snap decisions without thinking things true we often gravitate towards um our shared biases reinforcing our way of of thinking and this can be a major hurdle when we're creating a product uh to succeed and to actually uh uh think outside of those biases we have to lower our defenses we had to set our egos um assign um um aside and uh and stay open to to new ideas um and the first step is learning about cognitive biases so um what I uh uh what I like um there is a there is a book called Scout mindset and um and this is this it's a story about a c mind frame that um you have to um apply in order to to have a control over your biases um so a true Scout observes the environment and uh is looking for uh things they don't know they want to discover new things they want to understand new things and they're not afraid of being mistaken actually being mistaken uh makes you happy because you've learned something that you didn't know in the first place and that pushes you forward um so informed decisions they they come through a thorough research and a willingness to challenge our own beliefs um today I'll talk about four most important um cognitive biases that are influencing our our decision process um throughout my career working in startups and few agencies I I I created many different products I work with multiple stakeholders Founders um Etc uh and I after some time you start seeing pattern that Founders and stakeholders come in few different uh sets uh they fall into a few few buckets so those cognitive biases that I'm going to talk about represent the most common issues that um hamper the decision process that Founders um have um the first one is uh is the idea that you should keep going because you already invested um so much time and effort uh and and money um it's it's a fallacy we've all uh been there uh in some way um on my way here I was waiting for a bus and I waited for 5 minutes and I realized that maybe the bus came earlier but I decided to stay a little longer and that turned into 10 minutes and 15 minutes and at that point I was thinking I've already invested so much time waiting for this bus that I'm going to stay a little bit longer and I ended up ordering an Uber thank God and I wasn't late um so uh for example um couple years ago we work on this project um that had a big idea of transforming the way we do personal asset management and the client started with a grand ambition a very large MVP um a big scale um of a project our recommendation was to to scale down the nvp do kind of more Milestone approach release the product test it get feedback and and and and pivot um the client decided to to go into more um feature packed MVP um although they they did have funding unfortunate that funding ran out um at some point in the project and the client was left without the product and without the users or clients that could give him uh important information especially if his product I know caught on or or failed even um so um so finding product Market fit is is more important than achieving your ambition of of creating a grand product with a with an amazing amount of uh features um so this is one thing to to to to remember when we're thinking about building a product that it's it's more important to actually uh test it rather than focus on on polishing um meaningful uh meaningless details um it's better to test it if it gets detraction or it doesn't um and learn uh from uh from that data um so the default uh consensus fallacy which Bas Bo down to what I think other things uh think uh too you tend to project your own experience at the norm um as the norm for everyone else um um most fers come up with a startup idea based on their personal experience they have some insight um in a particular industry or they they notice certain problem that uh users in a different on a different product have and and their idea of product problem solution fit is the foundation of their Adventure they they might be right but they're not the users and they often time they they forget that they are not the users they are not the people that are actually going to make a decision whether they're going to use this product or not if they're going to take the risk of switching from one product to another um but they tend to uh project themselves onto their users um and and think that they have all the answers to questions about the user problems which uh which is a fallacy they they don't and that's why the only only way to get out of this fallacy is actually talk to your users get that feedback get that product out there test it um and talk to your community um and and and and just just test it just try try it in a real environment um so for each of those fallacies for each of those um biases I have a a small example and in this one we were doing an an ux audit for um a a a company that has over 60 million of active users so it's a it's a quite big product um and the client requested to to audit the um the product to see some quick fixes so long hanging fruits that would improve their retention um and improve their functionality of of their product um we did that uh so that was an interesting move on the on the side of the uh of the client to actually get the the outside Council to get the the third the opinion of an outsider um of a night on their product um and and we did that we we spoke with users we did uh um uh we did netnography and uh we tested the product ourselves and we came with a set of recommendations that were based on on the immediate feedback of their users um and although our findings uh unfortunately were rejected because uh the the founder said that um he knows the users better and uh he knows what users need um and that might be true we but we're not going to uh we we we we don't know um that necessarily um so um the this the confirmation bias is I think one of the most common biases and it's the most the wellknown uh um bias out there and because as we as humans we we tend to seek information that confirm our knowledge that confirm our set of beliefs and it's perfectly visible in our social media bubble the algorithm prefers the content that we interact with and that content only reinforces our status quo reinforces our um notion about the um reality but that basically prevents us from seeing the other half of the world the and the other opinions the other ideas that might be better than ours that might challenge us um that might give us a better um set of information to make a well-informed decision um and um so confirmation biases is most likely occurring in the early stage of the decision making process so to combat this uh is crucial to start with a with a a neutral fact base um recous of this stage of your business um um making decision is a crucial element of of your work um and acknowledging that this uh uh um this confirmation bias exists is is the first step to to actually um tackle it as a as a problem um the best way to to to to do that is to to seek an outside Council to to to talk to your users to talk with other people to find find information to se seek actively for information that contradict your beliefs that challenge your status quo uh and uh and use that and leverage this to make um a decision um so we all naturally want to be right uh no one likes to be wrong and being wrong really hurts and and it's a visceral feeling so um we that that fact that we want to be right uh makes us want to find information that will confirm uh what we uh what we know and what makes us feel right we don't want to step out of the comfort zone and challenge ourselves because we would have to actively admit to ourselves that we are wrong that somehow maybe we're less than what we are and and that's not true being wrong doesn't make you a a worse person being wrong means that you have an exceptional opportunity to to learn something new about yourself about your product about the the world around you um so and and confirmation bias can can prevent you from taking uh the direction that truly resonates with your customers uh and will drive drive your profit at the end of the of the day so um you know it's better to overcome your ego and succeed uh then uh to Pro protect it and and fall um being overly ex optimistic is uh I mean in general being optimistic is is nice it's great it's good to be optimistic like I I really hope you know tomorrow is going to be sunny and that my company is going to get a really big client at the end of the year but but the truth is that sometimes Optimist blinds us especially the kind of optimist that um makes you um makes you Discord uh potential uh potential issues or some Road books that are ahead of you uh when you're developing a product um good leaders are usually optimists and it's nice to work with Optimist because they give you a feeling like that that everything's going to be okay but in the long run being a a a blind optimism makes uh makes you lose trust uh um U the people around you will stop trusting you because you fail to to acknowledge uh issues uh and you'd rather um focus on the bright side of the day rather than prepare for the for rainy day um so there's an interesting statistic to that um uh there's a 35% chance that a business Will Survive first year uh first five years of operation that's data from the United States but if you ask the same entrepreneurs how are they estimating their chance of surviving First Years first first five years of their operation is at 66% so so we we naturally tend to uh be overly optimistic um and and that might prevent us from preparing um uh for the wars for preparing for the changing Market uh the sudden changes and so on and so on there is uh those two um cuz those four um confirmation biases were the most important I think um but uh I also wanted to to mention um two two more which are my favorite especially the Deni Krueger some of some of you might be familiar with those but I chose those two because there is a there are nice graphs that you can um use to to to illustrate those um those biases so the the dun crier effect is a is um it's um overconfidence bias um um where um people with low ability or knowledge um in particular area often overestimate their competence uh and in startups this can manifest as Founders believing they have all the answers only to realize um too late that they were ill prepared to to challenge ahead there is a funny story about the thei Kruger effect because what inspired um um researchers to to u to research this subject was a story of two bank robers from um from Pittsburgh um that believe if putting a lemon juice on their faces will erase their image from uh from surveillance C cameras in the banks so when they were apprehended after rubbing to Banks they were really surprised that it didn't work um I don't want to make things do you know that this effect is actually challenged not sorry the effect is currently getting challenged where is this actually true or not yes I I am I am aware of that uh although that might be a challenge uh but uh I'll give you maybe a different example as as a hiring manager working with plenty of Junior uh interns uh they tend to be overly confident in their abilities uh with zero to no experience and and a lot of you probably experienced that so there is some anecdotal truth to that as maybe it will be challenge but there is I believe there is some Truth uh truth in that um I mean the the other the other um cognitive bias or horis that can be attached to that is is the um imposter syndrome right so I might have 15 years of experience but I'm standing here and I'm sheding my pants like uh I mean there is going to be a question for the and oh my God I don't know I'm a fraud right so um there is something to that I do believe um so the the the second slide is a Gartner hype cycle and and I I chose this one because you know it is true and I I and I've been through a few of of those Cycles myself uh with electrical Vehicles blockchain is one of those as well uh AI as well so with AI will probably somewhere at the peak of inflated expectations and everyone um now sees that majority of startups are are just chat chat GPT rappers um so um the same cycle web 3 technology is going through right so um and actually I have another slide that that kind of shows that with the amount of startups that are dwindling uh through the years and it's not the data was collected from 2018 so it's not uh adjusted to financial crisis anyway um my point here is the with Gartner hype cycle there's a bandwagon effect attached where um uh we adopt certain behaviors because other people are doing so um like everyone thinks that the mar Market is going to be stable because everyone thinks the market is stable and that's not true um so when the new technology emerges and and everyone talks about that the headlines are everywhere everywhere everyone wants to get the piece piece of that pie but um as the time goes on and we enter the the the slope of Enlightenment and the plate of productivity is where actually real product emerges the products of of real value that have mature application of technology and uh a lot of products in blockchain technology also uh fall into this trajectory in in in in April I went to TK to to a blockchain event and um there um 10 startups were pitching their product and uh and all of them um had an application of blockchain technology that has an actual value that can be used to uh um to improve people lives to use in in creating value rather than creating another copy of a of a wallet um which I designed myself a couple years ago at least four or five as uh we were reaching the peak of inflated expectation um so um um running out of time so um what you can do to to tackle the the the biases uh well what first you have to be aware that they exist uh that that's the that's the biggest thing um uh you have to surround yourself with data you have to seek a uh outside counsil you have to um try to challenge your your um assumptions try to challenge your um current state of uh knowledge and you know if you're uh really struggling with a a problem uh you just go sleep and and and the next day you're going to wake up and your creative brain is going to fill in the gaps um and and you're going to come up with a with a good idea I mean it sounds stupid but that is true um on I want to just finish on uh on last slide on how um ux research can feed your slope brain because that that's what we want to do we want to give your brain the information that will um will give you the data that you need to make an informed decision and and in design and in product design this is extremely uh important to to give you that unbiased um unbiased uh uh knowledge unbiased information um without um without influence of your cognitive uh biases um learn about your product learn about your users um and arrive at the point where you can make a decision um that will um ultimately U direct your product on the on the path for for a success thank you so much [Applause]