Pessimists Archive Presents: The Franklin Fallacy, Why We Misjudge New Technologies

Thu, Nov 14, 2024, 03:51 AM · 15:45

People often dismiss emerging technologies by focusing only on their current limitations, overlooking their potential evolution. This tendency, seen throughout history—from the telegraph to Ethereum—stems from what can be called “The Franklin Fallacy.” When asked about the purpose of a hot air balloon, Benjamin Franklin famously responded, "What good is a newborn baby?" highlighting how judging a technology in its infancy is shortsighted. This talk delves into the psychology of this fallacy.