Andrei Grachev - Markets - Brave New World - TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025

uh as we just spoke uh behind the scenes right every year um having a speech here and I'm trying not to sell anything and just share our vision and my personal opinion about the market how it works what is the current narratives what um cycle we are at and what is the best things that we can do now in order to be successful as investors, builders and market participants. Uh today's speech is uh brave new world, right? Um why new world? Because uh by my opinion the market uh changed completely in the last 12 months and we are on a very innovative and very new and on a very uh complex on the one hand and very opportunistic lucky stage on the other hand. Let's take a look and have like a quick recap of the past 12 months.

Oh yeah on the market right what happened right the major thing that really happened is that the US regulation uh reverts to be very crypto friendly and a lot of companies and a lot of other countries treasuries funds banks investors family offices uh at one moment uh became to be also crypto friendly which as you can see on the market right drove uh the Bitcoin prices like to all-time highs even a few years ago even a year ago nobody could even say that bit BTC 100k is a near future now it is our like normal daily life and uh nobody cares about it already right genius x applied which made uh stable coin business and stable coin landscape uh very hot and a lot of stable coin assets year assets like normal stable coin are growing and of course regular framework and the countries like Pakistan UAE uh Europe and etc etc also raise up um if you check in Twitter if you check in I know crypto social media center etc you will see that it's all the questions right uh why is new al season when when the market goes up right why it's so bearish and center right but it's not bearish it's as I said it's different right uh instead of asking uh when moon right or when uh market recovers right we need to see that and understand that market already recovered but it's recovered differently right as I said a lot of companies people buy BTC because it is the only way in our unstable world um to have control over the funds to have control over the wealth and uh to have a kind of protection of the inflation right I think most of you guys who are in the market not from the first time heard these words in 2017 2014 but nobody took care it seriously I I mean not about you but in general right now this is exactly the words that government says that uh the bank says that black rock promotes right and a lot of things changed in last 12 months right then uh in general regarding the questions like when al season when stuff like that right when this coin will recover why doesn't goes up etc and et right we also should uh take in account that the market is much more smarter now much more smarter And if let's say a few years ago you could sell idea let's say 2017 everyone sold ideas 2020 two 2023 everyone sold like culture everyone sold price now the market understands that ideas may not work price is not the indicator and uh something should be behind promises something should be behind the charts right that's Why for now we have very uh segmented and fragmented liquidity flows of the market on top of everything products and coins that you could see like Bitcoin E Salana uh Falcon I don't know BNB right that that have a real use case real utility a real users that use these products right not use case that someone could probably use it no people use it for the purpose with the purpose, right? To get some benefits that they need. That's why it has like a substantial and stable demand for the assets and this assets have great liquidity. They have great uh price performance. They have great uh communities.

On the other hand, you could see that it's something funny. It's like memes. Uh why memes? because it is a culture. It is just uh you know it is casino market has two sides right one side is like something with fundamentals and another side is just gambling.

It's completely okay and we need to keep in mind that it's yeah it's just gambling. It can be pumped like 10,000 times and then collapse to zero. It's fine. It's easy money. It is for like those who want to gamble and that's how liquidity structured right now.

Everything which is in between of these two categories as you could see is just like a free space. There is nothing. If you take a look at any like old or not old or like new coins that launched with something that nobody needs, but it is not a meme, it is not a product. It is not a story. It's just dying.

Uh and yeah, this is how it's dying, right? uh someone launch mcoin, someone launch something uh without the token names right let's say a new L2 or a new I don't know some financial disruptive technology right but if there is no users there is no market for the product right if there is no real buyers uh for the product not for the coin but for the product right which utilizes this coin uh everything goes to zero right and for now I would say that you could see very promising like launches this year, last year, previous years with great investors, with great technology, with great I don't know community, but as a product people didn't need it and people don't use it. For example, we have like layer 2 with like 40 bucks trading volume, right? Uh then again it's launched someone buys these promises then the market realiz that behind this promises technology marketing investors empty space and this collapsed and uh and the current stage if there is no gambling which can go up and down if there is no fundamentals is the only way for the rest right it is launch up and then to zero bleeding to uh nowhere and new players appeared. This is the current market station.

Even uh very small retail people now understand it. We see this in the books. We see it in the markets, right? And we see how people react on everything. Uh but as I said, everything not bad.

It's just different. It's is great frankly because products that raise money, products that g attention, products that g user base, products that deliver value to its users, to the market that have some use cases, uh demand for the tokens. Uh it's not only good because I don't know, someone bought this coin, this coin went up, someone got rich. No, but also this projects create examples, create references for new startups, for new founders to replicate something, to improve something, to compete with them, to be a new superstars, right? To create new niches on the market.

And it's very good that now we have enough liquidity on crypto space. We have enough of buyers. We have enough funds there that can finance real stuff. This is very good. And we had a few discussions this week with the guys, right, who are building, I don't know, perpetual dexes and uh I don't know some stable coins, whatever, whatever, right?

They already have like users, they have volumes, they have revenues, they don't have coin. They started like uh product first. And even us, right? I don't know if you know or not, right? The day before yesterday we launched like Falcon launched its token right but we also started with no token first we had like two billion FDV right TVL and then we decided to launching something not vice versa right and if you take a look at great uh businesses pan another example right first it had a lot of memes launched millions of people millions of US dollars earned there right as a fees as a business and then the token token first uh from my point of view doesn't work anymore only for those who are memes and uh yeah this is like a part of this new era market um which relies on accountability which relies on uh product which relies on real use cases real revenue right and fundamentals uh I do believe that there is no space anymore for just uh promises uh for the speech the X if you are not a meme if you are not a cultural stuff like I don't know uh doggy or something like this right I believe there is no long-term value of this such of assets right it can go only down but if you build something that really generates revenue if people really use it and if the token is not the only revenue source but a benefit for your users.

I know like a points program uh or whatever to make their user experience better when they use your product. It makes sense and it will work and it will go up, right? And uh as an investor, right? And I had like panel with Sony guys two days ago, right? And that was a question what is the like red flags uh if we're talking with project, right?

Or what is the bad things? I cannot say that it's a red flag but just ask yourself or ask any founder right why someone would buy this coin just if you're talking about any coin why uh okay let's say you bought something why uh if there is anything beyond that you believe that it will go up or it is nice or this great team why right this market that doesn't know it uh would buy it and if there is a clear answer if there is a clear uh business model behind this utility etc. probably it is a good bet. uh here I think we should rob it and move forward with other uh speakers and with other things to do, right? And I wish you to rely on a deeper due diligence and uh to see all of your investments and all your coins in the their path to the moon and yeah enjoy talking 2049.

Enjoy crypto and thanks for joining me today. Hey, thank you guys.