Left Curve - TOKEN2049 Dubai 2024

all right all right all right who got [ __ ] up last night at the club I did come on clicker all right back back back all right some of y'all in here are [ __ ] [ __ ] y'all know who you are are you thought he had a little good to bear at bull market bought some coins bought some dog with hat maybe bought some I don't know some other dog [ __ ] meme coins that you have in your portfolio made a few X's cashed out and now what the [ __ ] where's this bull market at and we're just getting started and I get a little bit upset when I'm on social media and I see people who are Heming and haing about like oh I think bitcoin's only go to like 100,000 or some [ __ ] like that so I wanted to bring it back to a little bit more dgen and talk about the left curve and why some of you [ __ ] in here are not bullish enough so if you're not familiar with the meme some of you over here in the mid curve doing that [ __ ] I don't know 6040 [ __ ] I'm over here Neanderthal in this [ __ ] so let's just clarify why we're here what took us from $116,000 on bitcoin after um two demand S bakman free crash the market in November till know 64 whatever the Thousand it is right now and re-energize ourselves as to the meta narrative that's driving this whole situation and why we're not stopping at 70,000 or even a 100,000 obviously I'm out there on Twitter saying a million maybe it gets there maybe it doesn't whatever but we need to Rebel in what we're actually doing here and what is driving this market so that's the the purpose purp of this presentation and hopefully you leave this not being like this [ __ ] in the middle so little bit of Economics here again another thing that pisses me off when I'm on social media listening to people talk about economics especially some of the idiots who run central banks and whatnot is they talk about the real yield and if you're in Eon economics there's a lot of presentations our star all this gobbly G they teach you in University and like we can't really measure real what is the real yield and we think real yields are positive now I have my own belief that the real yield is essentially the 10year government bond yield minus nominal GDP growth and very simply if you as an investor are lending money to a government and a particular jurisdiction you should at least be compensated by the nominal growth of that economy it only makes sense let's let's say that a particular government wants to build a hydroelectric Dam or some other piece of large scale infrastructure and they don't want to tax the population to pay for it they have a functioning Government Bond Market and they're going to entice citizens and entities to borrow I start to lend to them and so what should the rate of return be well at a very high level it should be what is the economy going to benefit from this thing that I'm spending money on and surely as an investor in these bonds I should be getting paid at least the growth of the economy so that's how I Define the real yield and it's very easy to measure most economies publish a nominal GDP number every quarter and then 10year government bond yields are the most liquid assets in the world especially the US treasuries and I'll talk a little bit more about the US in particular in the rest of this presentation so at a very high level the positive real yield means that the investor is earning more than the growth of whatever they the government is generating so they're earning a profit if the real Y is negative then the government is earning a profit at the expense of the people who are lending to them now obviously if you're a politician or a government you want to borrow at a negative real yielding rate which makes sense especially in today's day and age and whether you're in a democracy or um some other form of system politicians globally are giving out free share [ __ ] to get you to vote for them or to get you to support them now they don't want to tax people for this free [ __ ] they want to say oh yeah we're just going to borrow some more money and we're going to reward this particular subset of the populace with something that they desire and so if possible politicians would love that hey if the grow economy is growing at 10% and I'm getting credit for that as a politician I'm getting reelected on this growth but I can borrow at 5% let's say then there's no incentive for me to stop borrowing as much as I can because I'm actually earning a profit as the government because real yields are negative so in in essence as long as real yields are negative there's no incentive for any government to stop borrowing large amounts of money now obviously this is unnatural it's natural to think that as an investor in a Government Bond I should get paid at least the rate of return the growth of the economy so how do these politicians globally financially repress everyone and get them to buy negative real yielding debt in the trillions and trillions of dollars that are outstanding today so the first and most common way that people do this is they use the banking system so in many countries probably up until most recently you can't invest in many things as a depositor the bank says hey here's two or 3 or 4% whatever it is uh meanwhile the economy is growing at 20% per randum that's essentially the model that China Japan South Korea Taiwan all the Asian tigers have uh implemented since World War II Japan being the most successful these economies have grown at five plus percent nominal GDP growths for many many years but you would be hard pressed as somebody depositing in a bank account to get that rate and so they're repressing you because you don't have any other options your money's in the bank you think the bank is safe but you're not getting the rate of return of the economy itself now a little bit more Draconian is you invoke invoke Capital controls where you say hey you're a Savor and you're like I don't like this I'm getting a [ __ ] bad deal here I'm getting 2% the economy is growing at 10 can I move my money somewhere else so that I can get a better return on my money and in many cases the answer is no your money is stuck in the banking system and or a particular Equity market and you don't have very many options and so that's been the state of the world for a very very long time that's on the financial repression side obviously as we've gotten more hip to this situation people have started to push back on this and aren't really happy if there's Capital controls or they don't have the ability to invest their money where they would like into higher yielding instruments either within the country outside the banking system or outside of a particular jurisdiction so we have have central banks um you know obviously the Federal Reserve in the US being the most important and I tend to look at the People's Bank of China the European Central Bank and the um Bank of Japan as the the four main central banks out there what are they all doing they're all employing some form of quantitative easing which is a fancy word for money printing these entities have the ability to print base currency and what do they do with that they buy government bonds what is the purpose of buying government bonds to push down their yield so that it's more affordable for people to borrow now who's the most important borrower in the world their respective government so while they might say that they're you know an independent organization aimed at Financial stability and maintaining the purchasing power of their respective piece of Fiat trash what they're really there to do is to make sure that their domestic government is properly funded and if there ever becomes a situation where the government can't afford its debt load they'll push rates negative by engaging in quantitative easing and and buying bonds so that's all the theory let's look at 2009 up until the president in terms of what's happened in the United States now obviously it's a big world out there the reason why I focus on the US it's the it's the Empire its Financial system controls most of the world and most Financial systems are derivative or derive their value and their policies from what the fed and the US monetary situation is so let's focus a bit on the US so here's a handy chart I'll publish this on Twitter later um I have a Bloomberg Uh custom index where I basically track the 10-year US Treasury yield minus uh the published nominal GDP growth year on year every quarter and so we have here this is a chart from 2009 to the present why did I start in 2009 well Lord Satoshi gifted us the um Bitcoin Genesis Block in 2009 and and obviously we're going to be focusing on crypto in a bit so I wanted to start in 2009 as a starting point so what do we see here there are two main periods of massively positive real interest rates which corresponded with deflationary events number one the 2008 Global financial crisis the second is covid apart from those two situations real yields have been negative the orange or yellow line is makes bit thicker is the Federal Reserves balance sheet so as we see real Ys are negative why are they negative because the FED is grown its balance sheet from about two trillion post the crisis to I think at a height of almost n trillion um during the covid years and as we see the real yields have stayed negative as they've been consistently printing money to buy bonds and reduce the yields of the 10-year rate which means that we as investors in the most liquid debt Security in the world are getting a raw deal next why do we want to have negative real yields as a government again because we want to spend money now I'm plotted the US real yield against another line which is the US federal budget deficit and as you can see it's a negative number the US has been able to finance itself at a profitably negative real yield ever since 2009 so obviously we're here for crypto what can we do about this is there a way that we can earn a positive positive real yield on our savings how can we escape Financial repression is there a way to opt out of the Fiat Financial system and make sure that we at least grow our wealth at the same way that the global economy is growing so obviously for the past 5 or 10 thousand years we've had gold and gold has performed pered its role very well I know a lot of people say it doesn't have a yield and blah blah blah but over time gold has kept its value because we believe it to have value the problem with gold it's very heavy try moving I don't know a million dollars a billion dollars worth of gold it's it's hard you've got to have probably an arm guard help you move your gold somewhere which means it's very easy for someone to steal it from you they know you have the gold it's heavy you have to move it somewhere it's [ __ ] gold you can see it it's easy for a government to take it from you and they've done this repeatedly over time obviously a a very good example during World War II in 1933 um US President Franklin delor Roosevelt on over one weekend said us people are no longer allowed to privately hold gold that was not reversed until 1974 where in which time the gold price went from $20 before uh around 1933 to somewhere around a few hundred in the 70s so you can see how the depreciation of the dollar over gold while while the under the average person was not able to own it now obviously we're here for a crypto conference we are here because Lord Satoshi has gifted us the Bitcoin blockchain why is Bitcoin so great because it's weightless whether I have one Satoshi or I have a million Bitcoin whatever that's worth in Fiat terms or energy terms it weighs the same amount of nothing and I can store my Bitcoin in my head if I remember my seed phrase or my private key then I have access to my wealth whenever I want it and most importantly no one can prove that I have control of this Bitcoin unless I sign a transaction in that instant which means that no one can steal it from me just by looking at me you might make an assumption that maybe this guy has a lot of Bitcoin or maybe they don't but you can't actually demonstr demonstratively prove that unless I physically sign a transaction in front of you and that's very very important versus gold where it's it's there I see it I can take it from you so here's the same chart again and the Bitcoin price is on a log scale and you know one of the most amazing things about the price of Bitcoin over time is it's moved in a nonlinear faction on a logarithmic scale and obviously it's probably one of the best performing Assets in human history as essentially what has happened we have the largest Empire and most powerful Empire in human history which is printing money to fund government spending and and finally we found a little little small door called Bitcoin and we're shoveling as much Fiat as we can into this ecosystem and obviously the price has gone up massively here is Bitcoin versus gold this is an index at 100 started in 2009 bitcoin's at like 88 million and Gold's at like 266 so obviously Bitcoin in this digital world that we live in has performed very very well for those who have gotten in the game and out of the Fiat system so that's the past that's that gets you from 16,000 into 64,000 but we're trading markets markets are about what do we think the future is going to hold is the situation from 2009 into the present going to be repeated from now until 2030 I'd say it's going to get even worse and it's not me saying this this is supposedly the nonpartisan arm of the US government telling us that they foresee a 6 % deficit from now until the next decade of course why would the government stop spending money they're doing it at a negative real yield they're not going to stop until the rates are punishingly high that investors are getting paid more than the growth that's being generated and so they're incentivized to continue to spend to get reelected and that's what this chart is telling us that what got us from a few cents of Bitcoin to 70,000 that trend is going to continue you and it's going to get even worse and this is another thing that I think people need to wrap their heads around especially when you're thinking about uh us growth or any growth in sort of a western democratic system is that you know I live most of my life in Greater China and in greater China GDP growth is a political variable every year the polar Bureau sits down and they decide how much growth are we going to create on paper how do they do it they just print more money and allow more debt to be created to generate the economic activity and that is where we have gotten to in the United States and other Western governments they need to get reelected if you do not let me forward here this is a great chart from BCA research and it basically shows that a sitting US president has a 67% chance of re-election if you have a recession in the year in which you are running for re-election you go from a 67% chance of re-election to a 33% chance of re-election so what the [ __ ] do you supposed to do print the money hand out the goodies and generate the growth otherwise you get booted from office which is why you have a 22% Federal deficit um spending GDP is a political variable the US Administration can create whatever GDP growth they want as long as they're willing to spend the money and they can keep spending the money because real yields are negative so this is why I believe that real yields will stay negative from now until foreseeable future so the thing that excited bitcoiners from 2009 to the present is going to get even worse from now until the next decade and so people could have a lot more confidence thinking okay well is it are we really reach the top of 70,000 or or 100,000 no the debt load has gotten exponentially larger there must be you need to repay the old debt and you have to issue even more debt because the economy is addicted to this debt you need to generate the GDP growth to stay in office and that is why I believe real yields will stay negative from now into the foreseeable future and so Bitcoin and ether and Sol whatever the [ __ ] crypto that you own that you've made money on from 2002 until the present that was just the starter plate we're now moving into the main course where people globally start to recognize oh why do I own these bonds there's no reason for a politician to stop spending money if the central bank is stomping on rates and making sure that they can do this at a profitable way from now until the foreseeable future now that is why you know Bitcoin 100,000 Bitcoin 250 500,000 whatever it is that the price Target you have get imaginative it's going to get crazy this is just you know the beginning people are not really believing that this is real this is you know is the bull market really here I don't know maybe I should like you know sell out I made a 50% or 100% whatever ever it is but like why did you buy it in the first place if that has not changed and that same scenario is going to continue but in a bigger fashion in the future why the [ __ ] are you selling anything sell when you believe that uh an Administration wherever you're from or globally where we're we're going to elect people who are going to balance the budget who are not going to spend money to get reelected they're going to get reelected by bringing real growth by by putting in policies that actually deliver things that we want not by get a bunch of money so that's why you're not bullish enough trust your instinct you got in this for a reason and that reason is still valid today it's going to be more valid tomorrow now before I leave stage I wanted to drive home this point uh a little bit more with respect to the incoming uh us election in November which obviously is very important for Global policy on a monetary front now imagine put yourself in you know Slow Joe Biden's shoes news right everything that a lot of stuff's not going so well but the economy is growing for certain folks and you know you know these statistics your campaign fin manager telling you hey man guess what you better generate that growth or your ass is grass and not only you but your whole party that is supporting you is out of out of work as well and the US is one of the most polarized political systems between the Democrats and the Republicans since the mid 19th century so it behooves you as the party in power to make sure you can generate growth and it's very easy to do so if all you have to do is spend money as the government and people feel wealthier and keeping their real yields negative just call up Jenny Yellen and J Powell and be like do your [ __ ] job make sure my debt is cheap so that I can stay in office and now whether it's Trump whether it's Biden doesn't matter which one of these clowns wins the same thing is going to continue here is an estimation of the budget deficit of a trump Administration versus a Biden Administration um from now until the end of the decade and what do you see basically the same thing they're both going to print money to do what they their constituents want on the Trump side he's proposing more tax cuts that's going to be inflationary that's going to increase the federal deficit Biden has all of his green policies and so it doesn't really matter who wins no one's campaigning saying hey I'm going to balance a budget I'm going to be like Melee in Argentina and start slashing government Ministries so to make sure that we have a balanced budget they're not campaigning on this so you can be confident that the Setters of monetary policy are going to be under even more stress to make sure to print the money to buy the bonds to keep real yields negative and what is the exit we know what the exit is it's [ __ ] Bitcoin thank you everyone